![]() ![]() This week, 14 modeling groups contributed a forecast that was eligible for inclusion in the new or total deaths ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction.The figures show the number of new (left) and total (right) COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from August 6 through October 8 and forecasted over the next 4 weeks, through November 5.They should not be relied upon for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends. While they have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time, even the ensemble forecasts have not reliably predicted rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one forecast.Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories. ![]() The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 5 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below.The national ensemble predicts that a total of 1,069,000 to 1,076,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date. This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 1,400 to 3,600 new deaths likely reported in the week ending November 5, 2022.Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths ![]()
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